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Peter Mandelsson:
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24.2. 2005

EU Trade Commissioner Mandelson has a controversial background in UK politics, and was twice forced to leave the cabinet due to relatively minor scandals. He played a key role in boosting the electoral fortunes of the UK Labour Party in the past decade and has been a close mentor of Prime Minister Tony Blair. ANALYSIS: Peter Mandelson, who became EU Trade Commissioner in November, was born into a prominent Labour Party family. After graduating from Oxford University, he entered the media, rising to become a senior television producer. He took charge of the Labour's communications strategy in the 1980s and played an important role in improving the party's public image.

Milestones
* He became a member of parliament in 1992 and a leading figure in the Labour Party after Blair became leader in 1994. He insisted that the party needed to modernise and occupy the centre ground of UK politics.
* In 1998, he became secretary of state for Trade and Industry, but resigned five months later when it was revealed that he had failed to disclose a financial loan from a parliamentary colleague. He was then appointed secretary of state for Northern Ireland in 1999, a post he left in 2001 amid controversy over the links between a passport application and financial backing for a high-profile public project.
* Blair nominated Mandelson as the United Kingdom's EU commissioner last summer and he was given the trade portfolio by Barroso.

Capabilities. Mandelson, 51 years-old, has brought a number of skills to the political arena:
1. 'Out of the box' thinking. He has proved a radical innovator both inside the Labour Party and during his two spells in government. Although he has attracted controversy, he does not lack courage. Many of the media attacks on him have been motivated either by: his status as senior adviser to Prime Minister Blair; his desire to reconcile the Labour Party to affluent constituencies; or for his strong support for the EU. Few have doubted his ability, and UK-based partisan opponents both respect and fear him.
2. Political contacts. He is deeply involved in numerous European institutions and think tanks, and well connected and familiar with their counterparts in the United States. This is unusual for senior UK politicians, who tend to have contacts with one 'side' of the Atlantic or the other.
3. Political dexterity. Mandelson has proved able to work with leading figures from the right, especially the centre-right. Like Blair, his instincts are to minimise the traditional left-right political divide on the grounds that the real contemporary distinction is between consolidators/incrementalists and radicals/modernisers, with himself in the second camp. This suggests that notional differences of political philosophy between himself and Commission President Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, or between himself and many Bush administration officials, may prove inconsequential.
4. Business stance. As a UK cabinet minister he was sensitive to the concerns of business about regulation, and will probably remain open to dialogue with the business community in his new post in Brussels. His own experience in the corporate world is limited, but he has cultivated an unusually wide range of personal contacts across several business sectors.
5. Negotiating flair. Mandelson will seek to minimise the impact of specific EU-US trade disputes, eg over aerospace, and attempt to keep the agenda firmly on the big picture surrounding the WTO Doha Round. This is likely to be matched by the Bush administration ( see EUROPEAN UNION: New Commission faces huge challenge - August 16, 2004).
6. Bureaucratic sway. Although Mandelson is new to Brussels, he has already managed to collect a comparatively strong team of officials around him. He is also fortunate in that trade policy is an area in which other Brussels institutions such as the Council of Ministers and the European Court of Justice offer little in the way of challenge.
7. PR skills. Although Mandelson has been open to the charge of an excessive interest in presentational politics, his has a formidable ability to understand the needs of the modern media and adapt his message to those ends. In his current position, this will require the assiduous courting of elite press contacts in an attempt to create positive momentum wherever possible, and to limit potentially damaging rows. While no previous trade commissioner has put much effort into this aspect of the post, there is considerable potential for a commissioner to mobilise sympathetic business constituencies via the media.

Ambitions. Mandelson is unlikely to return to frontline UK politics. He would need to find another parliamentary constituency, which would be difficult given that he is on the right of the party while activists tend to be on the left. Nor would any likely successor to Blair, especially Chancellor Gordon Brown, be willing to allow him the sort of influence that he once had over the prime minister. He may therefore regard Brussels as the place from which to build a second political career. In the event of a highly successful period as trade commissioner, capped by a Doha Round deal, Mandelson could emerge as a potential successor to Barroso. His prospects would partly depend on the standing of the United Kingdom within the EU at that time -- a perception that will be influenced by whether or not the country ratifies the EU constitutional treaty and on the prospects for its accession to the euro-area. These are matters over which Mandelson has little influence ( see UNITED KINGDOM: Mandelson departure hurts euro cause - January 30, 2001). Bigger picture. Mandelson's ability to make the most of his new opportunity depends more on external constraints than his capacity to establish, articulate and advance a coherent stance on trade matters. The two most awkward external factors would include any downturn in the US economy that pushed Congress and the administration in a more protectionist direction Potentially more problematic still is the future political direction of France. Were the 2007 French elections to become a partisan auction as to which candidates or parties were the most determined (rhetorically at least) to oppose globalisation with the greatest vigour, it would be extremely difficult for Mandelson to create the political space in which to cut a Doha Round deal regardless of his abilities or preferences.

CONCLUSION: Mandelson is an astute politician whose unusual combination of talents suggest that he will become a highly effective commissioner. He is potentially well placed and suited to move the global trade agenda forward. His largest constraints are likely to be external factors: the course of French politics in the build-up to the 2007 elections; and the potential for a US economic downturn.
Keywords: NA, United Kingdom, United States, Western Europe, economy, international relations, politics, corporate, election, foreign investment, foreign policy, foreign trade, government, international law, party, reform, sanctions, security, treaty

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Photograph (c) Reuters 2005

24.02.2005